Castro's Latest Coup

Fidel Castro announced on Tuesday he was stepping down as President of the Council of State and commander-in-chief after 49 years as the leader of Cuba.

Castro is the longest serving head of state in history, with the exception of monarchs, and while many Americans and Cuban ex-pats detest him, he remains immensely popular with some Cubans and is a legend in the developing world for standing up to the United States.

To supporters, he is charismatic, charming, and fatherly. To detractors, he is a ruthless dictator who eliminated freedoms, quashed opposition, and ruined the Cuban economy.

But most observers agree – even if grudgingly – that Castro has demonstrated incredible stamina and staying power, even when faced with of some of the most daunting and powerful enemies in the world.

The general consensus is that the National Assembly will rubber-stamp Fidel Castro's chosen successor, Raul Castro, as President when it meets on Sunday. Raul Castro, Fidel's 76-year-old younger brother, was named acting president on 31 July 2006 after Fidel underwent emergency surgery, and has been ruling the country ever since. Before taking over as president, Raul was defense minister, and was widely viewed as the only probably successor to Fidel.

There is no indication the organization will consider any other option or order anything resembling true free and fair elections. .

Although Raul Castro has shown slivers of democratic leanings, such as allowing – some even say "promoting" – discussion about problems with the state-run economy, he has fallen significantly short of advocating real change. Some critics have noted that in any other system, Raul Castro would be considered a dictator, but when compared to Fidel, he looks "democratic."

Moreover, Raul Castro has so far lacked any will to stand up to Fidel Castro or to counter any direct policy set by Fidel. He also appears to lack the power base necessary to implement major change, even if he was inclined to do so.

Despite stepping down as President, Fidel Castro will remain powerful, and is likely to retain a kind of veto power. He still holds the position of first secretary of the Communist Party – the only party in Cuba – and his legacy gives him the single strongest voice in Cuba, if he chooses to use it.

In his resignation, Fidel Castro hinted at his continued involvement in Cuban politics, and reminded observers of both the staying power of his revolution and the system he has put into place.

In his statement, he said, "Fortunately, our Revolution can still count on cadres from the old guard and others who were very young in the early stages of the process," He also said he will continue to write his newspaper columns.

Castro finished by saying, "This is not my farewell to you. My only wish is to fight as a soldier in the battle of ideas ... It will be just another weapon you can count on. Perhaps my voice will be heard."

The US government and US media have spent countless hours speculating on "Cuba After Castro," examining scenarios and preparing for mass chaos, power vacuums, the return of the Miami Cubans, influx of investors, and violence.

In the end, all the debate over succession and contingency planning appears to be at least mistimed, if not completely mute. The question no longer appears to be "what about Cuba after Castro?" If anything, the question is what about Cuba after the fall of this government…and how long, exactly, can the system last without the leader who put it into place?

To me, the most fascinating part of the announcement is the lack of change. Cuba today is very much – maybe even exactly – like Cuba yesterday.

The Cuba after the National Assembly vote on Monday will be very much like the Cuba of today…and yesterday. No one seems surprised by Fidel Castro's announcement, nor does anyone seem to see a likelihood of imminent change.

In Havana, many people were somewhat sad about Fidel's retirement, but most agreed it was the right decision because of his poor health. There were no concerns about succession or what would happen.

It seemed that most Cubans believe the system will work the same as it has for 49 years; the same way it has worked for the last 19 months without Fidel Castro officially in power.

Anti-Castro activists also seemed to see Fidel's announcement as almost a non-issue. In 1996, when the Cuban government publicly announced Castro's illness, Cuban's in Miami thronged to the streets to celebrate.

Today, there were no celebrations. Fidel's opponents now seem focused on his death, hoping that the true end of Fidel will bring change in Cuba.

The fact is that, for now, Fidel Castro's resignation has very little impact on Cuba. The system is likely to remain a one-party state, with curbed freedoms, closely resembling the system that is in place today…a government that Fidel has not officially headed for more than a year.

Over time, Raul may moderate his stance. He may face serious opposition or a democratic movement that brings down the Communist government.

But not today.

Some investors say Raul has foreshadowed moderation on the economy by allowing criticism of the current centralized economic system. They hope that the official designation of Raul Castro as head of government may provide the US with an opportunity to lift the embargo, increasing tourism and allowing exports of cigars and nickel.

But even the most optimistic observers admit that change will be slow. Probably very slow.

In many ways, Castro spearheaded another coup today, ending his official power without ending the system he put into place.

Contrary to most speculation, he did not leave in a flurry of violent unrest, or create a power vacuum, or open the way for major democratic reform.

He just stepped aside, leaving Cuba observers to wonder the same thing they have been wondering for 49 years.

What's next?